Below are the economic and market highlights for the week:
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Consumer prices continued to cool in May. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose a modest 0.10%, down from April’s 0.20% increase. Year-over-year (YOY), the CPI index was up 2.40%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.10% in May. YOY, core prices were up 2.80%. The headline figure was kept in check by a drop in energy, autos, and apparel which helped offset an increase in food and shelter. Producer prices also held relatively steady for the month, rising by 0.10% and were up 2.40% from the year ago period. Overall, the trade wars have shown little inflationary impact as businesses have refrained from raising prices in hopes of more trade deals. However, absent more progress this summer in trade negotiations, the threat remains that companies may have no choice but to begin hiking prices.
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Despite DOGE efforts and higher tariff receipts, the U.S. federal budget deficit continued to rise in May. As of May 2025, the budget deficit hit $1.4 trillion for the first eight months of the fiscal year. In May alone, the deficit totaled just over $316 billion, reflecting a sharp rise which followed a temporary surplus in April due to tax season receipts. Surging financing costs were a major contributor to the increase in the deficit. In May, interest payments on the national debt totaled over $92 billion, making it one of the largest federal expenditures after Medicare and social security. As federal government spending continues to outstrip receipts, the fiscal year 2025 deficit now exceeds 6% of GDP. That is a level rarely seen outside of wartime or major economic crises.
- Main Street seemed to agree with Wall Street’s consensus that tariff rates will have a negligible impact on price levels. In the latest University of Michigan survey, the consumer sentiment index increased 15.90% from a month ago to 60.5 in June—well ahead of estimates of 54. The inflation outlook also tumbled from levels not seen since 1981. The one-year estimate dropped to 5.10%, a 1.5 percentage point drop, while the five-year view edged lower to 4.10%. In addition, the current conditions index, which reflects consumer sentiment about present conditions, jumped 8.10%. The future also looks brighter with the future expectations index which measures future economic conditions, soaring 21.90%.
Markets Face New Threat
Stocks were on track for a third consecutive winning week, but late-breaking news out of the Middle East rattled markets on Friday morning sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down as much as 886 points during the trading session. Overnight, Israel launched a wave of airstrikes on Iran which sent energy prices higher, adding yet another item to the pile for investors to worry about. Early in the week, Wall Street and Main Street had appeared ready to put the trade war and inflation concerns behind them. Equity markets had continued to climb from their April lows and were trading at pre-tariff levels. That being said, stocks had been priced for perfection with the best case scenario for a trade resolution already baked into valuations. That scenario has now been placed on the backburner, however, following Israel’s attack on Iran. While the region has long been a potential powder keg, the stakes seem much higher this time around given that Tehran is likely to feel a need to respond forcibly in order to restore its reputation after having suffered a series of recent setbacks at the hands of Israel in recent months. While the U.S. administration has been seeking a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear risk, President Trump took to Truth Social on Friday suggesting more attacks are on the way if Iran fails to quickly move ahead with striking a nuclear agreement. The rapid escalation rattled energy and equity markets alike. Lower energy prices have been a major contributor to slowing inflation and the new conflict could disrupt prices during the busy summer travel season. For investors, the latest developments add to a growing list of concerns which also includes Congress finalizing a budget deal which could potentially lead to more federal government borrowing and higher deficits. Those items along with the need to finalize over 180 trade deals by a July deadline means that the White House, businesses, and consumers have a lot to navigate in the coming weeks.
The Week Ahead
The Fed holds its FOMC meeting. It will also be a light week for economic data with retail sales and housing starts being the highlights of the week.
The Unluckiest Day of the Year
It’s Friday the 13th, a day that has long been believed to be an unlucky day in Western culture, thus becoming the inspiration for the namesake 1980s horror movie franchise. Every year, there is at least one Friday that falls on the 13th day of the month which can happen up to three times within a calendar year. The good news is that today is the only Friday the 13th of 2025, and the bad news is that there will be three next year. We all might want to throw some salt over our shoulders or knock on wood.
As with many superstitions, the exact origins of why this day became thought of as unlucky are unknown, however, it can be traced to a few religions and beliefs. At the last supper, the 13th guest at the table was Judas, the disciple who betrayed Jesus. According to the Bible, Christ was crucified on a Friday. Some biblical historians believe Cain killed his brother Abel on Friday the 13th and that Adam and Eve ate the forbidden fruit on a Friday.
Another theory about why many associate this day with bad luck dates back to 1307 when French King Philip IV ordered the mass arrest on Friday the 13th of hundreds of Knights Templar who were tortured in order to extract false confessions to an array of crimes such as devil worship, heresy, and fraud, and then later killed.
One story states that the Norse god of mischief, Loki, crashed a party where he was not invited, thus becoming the 13th guest and causing chaos and death by tricking the blind god Hod into shooting Balder, the god of light and joy, with an arrow. An article published in 1834 in a French magazine refers to a count who killed his daughter on Friday the 13th. The article states, “It is always Fridays and the number 13 that bring bad luck!” In Tarot Cards, the death card is numbered 13. It’s also true that due to superstitions about the number 13, there are many skyscrapers without a 13th floor (not Probity’s, however).
Additionally, many cultures and world religions believe the number 12 to be divine, sacred, and perfect, while mathematicians and astrologers also revere the number 12. There are 12 gods in Greek mythology, 12 Imams in the Islam religion, 12 zodiac signs, 12 tribes of Isreal, 12 months in a year, 12 hours on a clock face, 12 inches in a foot, and the list goes on and on. It can be extrapolated that the number that follows 12 is decidedly not holy or special and therefore simply unlucky due to its place on the number line.
In a strange and related twist, Friday the 13th has become a day when many people throw caution to the wind and get adorned with a number 13 tattoo. Oliver Peck, a famous tattoo artist in Dallas, TX, said, “Bad luck would come your way, it would see the number 13, see that bad luck is already there, and it would pass by.” (Perhaps that is why sailors in the late 18th century thought that getting the number 13 tattoo would keep them safe at sea.) Peck threw his first major Friday the 13th tattoo function in 1995. It consisted of a marathon session of tattooing the number 13 on as many people as possible. In 2008, Peck and his co-workers earned a spot in the Guinness Book of World Records for tattooing the unlucky number on 415 people in 24 hours. Guess today could be considered lucky for tattoo lovers. In the tattoo community, Friday the 13th is considered a holiday of sorts where tattoo shops release a “flash sheet” of small, predesigned, affordable tattoos (sometimes priced at $13 or $31) that patrons can get to commemorate the occasion.
Hopefully, tattoo enthusiasts don’t have paraskevidekatriaphobia, which is a fear of Friday the 13th, or its cousin, triskaidekaphobia, a fear of the number 13. On a brighter note, in celebration of Friday the 13th, Krispy Kreme is offering a dozen original glazed doughnuts for 13 cents with the purchase of a dozen at regular price. Chipotle will briefly offer a buy-one-get-one-free meal to anyone “tatted like a Chipotle bag” in honor of a popular online meme that compares the appearance of individuals with a lot of text-based tattoos to Chipotle bags (which have a lot of writing and doodles on them). The restaurant is also offering 13 temporary tattoos to allow fans to “get tatted” at 13 Chipotle restaurants for a limited time on June 13th. However you may choose to celebrate today, we hope your day is full of fortune and good luck.