Markets were whipsawed this week as investors exited risk‑on trades, hammering big tech and sparking volatility in crypto and precious metals. Meanwhile, industrials and small caps outperformed on a rotation toward old economy and value sectors. By Friday, the sell-off in tech, along with healthy earnings, became just too tempting for dip buyers, who propelled the Dow Industrial Average +1200 points to cross the 50,000 level for the first time ever.
Week’s Key Items:
- The U.S. services sector held steady in January with the ISM Services Index remaining unchanged at 53.8, impacted by a moderation in new order growth from slumping exports. Numbers above 50 indicate expansion while those below signal contraction. The survey also indicated businesses remain wary of tariff issues and potential supply constraints tied to the AI data center construction boom.
- U.S. manufacturers saw a surge of new orders in January, pushing the ISM manufacturing survey to a 2 ½ year high of 52.6. That was up from December’s 47.9. Despite the solid reading, the expansion could be temporary as the improvement was primarily related to restocking after the holiday shopping season and efforts to hold higher inventory due to the aforementioned tariff uncertainty.
- Consumer sentiment improved marginally in early February amid lingering worries about the labor market and the rising cost of living. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 57.3 from 56.4 in January. The survey showed that the consumer’s outlook improved with respect to their near-term personal finances and they benefited from a better pricing environment for durable goods. Those factors managed to offset the concerns they hold over the longer-term outlook.
- The groundhogs have spoken and it’s six more weeks of winter! Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his burrow on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania to see his shadow on Monday. As the world’s most celebrated groundhog, Phil’s predictive accuracy has only been about 30-35% in recent years. Lending credence to this year’s call, however, is the fact that Phil’s forecast was consistent with those of his fellow meteorological marmots – Georgia’s General Beauregard Lee and Staten Island Chuck – whose predictions have been correct 70% and 85% of the time, respectively.
Markets Rebound to Close Volatile Trading Week
It was a volatile week for markets as investors sought to close out positions in risk-on trades. Big tech alone shed $1.35 trillion in market cap as investors continued to question the AI case including the magnitude of AI capex spending, potential overcapacity, and the eventual return on investment. Collectively, big tech has announced $660 billion in AI spending this year. Amazon was the latest of the hyperscalers to fall victim to investor concerns. The company posted mixed earnings results while announcing $200 billion in capital expenditures for the year, up 56% from a year ago. Shares sank 5.50% on the news on Friday. The risk-off trade also permeated other parts of the market, including crypto. Bitcoin neared the $60,000 level on Thursday after sinking under the $70,000 threshold which was seen as a key support level. The sell-off was attributed to leverage and forced liquidations in which traders’ positions are automatically sold as bitcoin hits preset price targets. The silver trade also sent investors on a wild ride this week as the spot price rose to nearly $92/ounce before falling back to $64 only to close the week at roughly $77.50. Despite investors behaving anxiously, the economy continues to hum along with services and manufacturing expanding and consumers feeling more optimistic about their financial situation – even considering a weak labor market. We’ll get more color on the state of the labor market next week after the partial government shutdown pushed this week’s nonfarm payrolls report to next week.
Friday reminded us just how quickly the mood on Wall Street can reverse itself with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging over 1,200 points. The economically sensitive index is up 4.31% on the year, helped by industrials and financials who have been the beneficiaries of both solid economic readings and the rotation out of tech. The S&P 500, while trailing the Dow due to the index’s heavy tech exposure, also managed to have a good week having pulled itself out of red for the year in the process. Even small caps are finally getting some respect with the Russell 2000 index beating many large cap benchmarks and posting a 3.86% return on the year. While the major indices were whipsawed this week, it should be noted that volatility has been far less pronounced within diversified portfolios. On average, most of our managed accounts have returned somewhere between 1.7% and 3.4% (1x standard deviation range) YTD through Thursday, and we’d expect those figures to be meaningfully higher following today’s showing. For context, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average had returned -0.60% and 1.84%, respectively, over the same time period. With the White House increasing focus on affordability and tailoring policies prior to the midterms to reduce the price of energy, healthcare, credit, housing, and big pharma, we continue to believe conditions remain constructive for the consumer and for investors by extension – even as it comes with some higher than normal turbulence in the near term.
The Week Ahead
Markets will be closed for Presidents Day on Monday, February 16th. Week in Review will pause in observance. Our next edition arrives on February 20th with the latest reports on durable goods and housing.
Touchdowns and Trivia
This Sunday, February 8, 2026, Super Bowl LX pits the Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots in a rematch of their Super Bowl XLIX showdown from 2015 — a game New England won 28-24. The big game kicks off at 5:30 p.m. Central at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. For many people tuning in, the game on the field is not the biggest draw. The NFL’s annual championship showcases a number of musical performances on what is widely considered “the biggest stage in the world” with a viewership that consistently exceeds 100 million annually. Prior to kick-off, there will be a pre-game concert featuring LaRussell, a Bay Area hip hop artist who turned down a deal with Jay-Z three years ago to remain independent and frequently hosts concerts in his backyard venue, The Pergola. The tailgate concert headliner is Teddy Swims, a Grammy-nominated pop and R&B singer/songwriter from Atlanta. Bay Area band Green Day will perform during the opening ceremony, and Brandi Carlisle will sing America the Beautiful. Charlie Puth will sing the National Anthem, and artist Coco Jones will perform Lift Every Voice and Sing. The halftime show will be led by Bad Buddy, the most-streamed artist globally, with more than 19.8 billion streams on Spotify in 2025. This past Sunday, Bad Bunny took home the Grammy Award for Album of the Year, the first artist to win the award with a Spanish-language album.
On the field, both the Patriots and the Seahawks have new quarterbacks since their last Super Bowl matchup. The Patriots will be led by 23-year-old Drake Maye who was drafted into the NFL in 2024, and the Seahawks have 28-year-old Sam Darnold. This is the first Super Bowl in which both teams’ starting quarterbacks and head coaches — the Patriots’ Mike Vrabel and the Seahawks Mike Macdonald — are in either their first or second season with that team. Whether you watch for the football, the performances, or the commercials, below are some fun trivia questions for your game day entertainment.
Game Day Trivia & Prop Bet Questions
1.Will the coin toss be heads or tails?
2.Which team will win the coin toss?
3.Which team will score first?
4.Which Bay Area landmark will be shown first on TV during the broadcast?
5.Will any kick hit the upright or crossbar?
6.Which quarterback will be shown first on TV?
7.Will the national anthem run over or under 119.5 seconds?
8.Will any player cry during the national anthem?
9.Which brand will be shown in the first commercial after kick-off?
10.Which team will have the first accepted penalty?
11.Will the first coach’s challenge be successful?
12.Which team will get to 10 points first?
13.Will either team score in the last two minutes of the first half?
14.Will there be overtime?
15.Which song will Bad Bunny perform first?
16.Who will join Bad Bunny on stage?
17.How many songs will be played during the halftime show?
18.Which team will have more passing yards?
19.Which team will have more rushing yards?
20.Will the MVP be a quarterback, skill position player, or other?
21.What color will the Gatorade shower on the winning team’s coach be at the end of the game?
22.Which celebrity will be shown on TV first?
23.What will be the combined total points for the game?
24.Will the last scoring play be by the Patriots or Seahawks?
25.Will the final play be a pass attempt or a run?
Below are links to printable trivia and prop bet sheets that can be used for some friendly and creative competition:
- The Sports Geek Printable Prop Bet Sheet: https://www.thesportsgeek.com/
blog/super-bowl-prop-bet- sheet-free-printable// - Super Bowl Trivia 2026 Edition:
https://sportsbrackets.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/ Super-Bowl-LX-Trivia.pdf - Party Prop Betting Sheet:
www.covers.com/super-bowl/prop-bet-sheet
We wish you a safe and fun Super Bowl Sunday.