Below are the economic and market highlights for the week:
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The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.30%, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.0% in September. Excluding food and energy, core CPI showed a 0.20% monthly gain and rose at an annual rate of 3.0%. A 4.1% rise in gasoline prices drove much of the month-to-month increase. Consumers also experienced sticker shock at the dealership as new vehicle prices rose 0.8%. Shelter costs, which had been the primary inflation driver, rose just 0.2% in September.
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Services and manufacturing gathered momentum in October, increasing to 54.8 from 53.9 earlier in the month. That’s the highest since July and represents an acceleration in growth just above the Q3 average. Tariffs, however, remain a key concern for businesses resulting in a dampening effect on job creation. Inflationary pressures continued with the prices charged for goods and services logging their fastest increase since April.
- Lower mortgage rates and higher inventory brought out homebuyers in September. Sales of previously owned homes rose 1.5% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.06 million units. That was the highest pace in seven months. Inventory also rose, up 14% year-over-year (YOY) to 1.55 million units being available for sale at the end of September. At the current sales pace, that is equivalent to a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale. In comparison, six to seven months is considered to be a healthy balance between supply and demand. Unfortunately for homebuyers, higher demand also meant higher prices. The median price of a home sold in September was $415,200, up 2.1% YOY.
Stocks Soar to New Highs as Shutdown Drags On
Q3 earnings continued to deliver for investors, offsetting the drag from the federal government shutdown which has now entered its fourth week. As of Friday, earnings are expected to rise a solid 10.40%. Of the 143 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date, 87.40% have exceeded analysts’ expectations. This is above the long-term average of 67%. With the government shuttered, major economic releases remained largely on pause. However, September’s CPI report was the exception this week as the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the data, which enabled the Social Security Administration to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment for benefit checks. For 2026, the cost-of-living adjustment will be 2.8%. In lieu of government data, investors poured over S&P’s Global Flash PMI which showed growth accelerating in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
Lacking other data to focus on, indications from earnings calls drove all three major indices to fresh all-time highs on Friday. This earnings-driven momentum has kept investor sentiment buoyant as attention now shifts to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The mild September CPI report leaves the door open to another 0.25% rate cut, bringing the benchmark range to 3.75%-4.00%. As Congressional negotiations remain at a standstill, market participants will be watching the Fed’s decision—and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC remarks—with heightened scrutiny.
The Week Ahead
The Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting where it is set to lower interest rates by 0.25%. Durable goods and personal income and spending figures are also scheduled to be released.
Boo-ming Halloween Sales
It’s Halloween season, and the creepy décor has become bigger, bolder, and scarier — including towering 12-foot skeletons guarding homes and massive black spiders crawling up doors and windows. Oversized Halloween-themed inflatables and animatronics are also taking over lawns across America. It’s the era of statement yards and spooky showmanship. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), spending on Halloween décor has hit a record high. It is expected to reach $4.2 billion this year, which is an increase from $3.8 billion in 2024. The NRF along with Prosper Insights and Analytics have been conducting an annual Halloween survey for more than a decade.
Inflation, tariff concerns, and a cocoa crisis driving up the cost of chocolate have not scared consumers away. Total Halloween spending in 2025 is projected to be $13.1 billion which is up from $11.6 billion last year and surpasses the previous record of $12.2 billion set in 2023. Candy is the most universal purchase, and spending on candy alone is expected to reach $3.9 billion compared to last year’s $3.5 billion.
The Halloween hype is not only getting bigger each year, but it’s also beginning earlier. Nearly half of consumers – 49% – said they would begin shopping for Halloween before October. Ten years ago, only 34% of consumers said they started shopping before the month of Halloween. Retailers set out Halloween décor as early as June to hedge against trade risk and extend the retail season. Summerween has become a real thing. The idea of summerween first originated from an episode of Disney Channel’s Gravity Falls where residents of a mysterious town prefer to celebrate Halloween twice a year. As a result, people have used the summerween trend to organize Halloween parties in July—think coffin-shaped ice cream sandwiches, candy corn flavored drinks, watermelon jack-o’-lanterns, and festive arts and crafts.
The survey by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics revealed that we’re likely to see many familiar Halloween costumes as Halloween parties and festivities get underway, such as Spider Man, princesses, and pets parading as hot dogs or pumpkins.
According to the NRF, the most popular costumes for kids this year are:
- Spider Man
- Princess
- Witch
- Ghost
- Superhero
- Batman
- Superman
- Wednesday Addams
- KPop Demon Hunters
- Vampire
For adults, the top ten costumes according to the NRF for 2025 are:
- Witch
- Vampire
- Pirate
- Cat / Batman (tie)
- Superman
- Ghost
- Addams Family
- Zombie
- Princess
- Star Wars
Pinterest just released their Halloween trend report, sharing that searches for “uncommon Halloween costumes” are up an impressive 171%, so it’s possible we’ll see fewer witches and vampires and more creative ideas. Pinterest predicts there will be more bug-inspired looks such as ladybugs, butterflies, bumblebees, and luna moths, along with doll-themed costumes, food-themed outfits, and “castelecore” which blends medieval fantasy with mystical elements.
With one week until Halloween, we hope you have your costume picked out, your candy stocked, and your spooky spirit in full swing. Happy Haunting!